It’s time to look at another new card in the latest Hearthstone Expansion. Ram Wrangler is a new 5 drop (which is a very contested spot in most decks) for the hunter class. Let’s look at the statistics surrounding the RNG of this card.
There will be 40 beasts in total once TGT is launched. This gives you a 2.5% chance for any individual beast to be summoned). The average stats of all the beasts in the game(excluding deathrattles) are 3.5 attack and 3.7 health. This makes Ram Wrangler quite good value but probably not good enough to be valued over other 5 drops such as Loatheb.
The Top Tier Beasts
There are 5 beasts that you will be hoping to see appear from your Ram Wrangler. These are Ghazrilla, King Krush, Savannah Highmane, Malorne and the new Captured Jormungar (5/9 body no card text). These 5 cards have excellent stats and summoning these will most likely win you the game unless your opponent has a really good way to deal with them. You have a 12.5% chance to summon these beasts.
Break even/cost effective Tier Beasts
It is hard to rank the other beasts by their stats as some of them have potentially negative effects (such as Acidmaw). We will not attempt to rank all these beasts but we can calculate that there is a 67.5% chance to summon a mid-range beast that is either cost-effective or break even with 5 mana for 5/5 stats. Combined with the 12.5% of summoning a top tier beast then this gives Ram Wrangler a 80% chance to at least break-even on it’s mana cost.
Low Tier Beasts
If you have read the paragraphs above then you can probably figure out that there is a 20% chance of getting a low value beast from your Ram Wrangler. 1 in every 5 times you play Ram Wrangler, you are going to lose value (although some of the low value beasts might still be situationally useful such as Timber Wolf).
So, a 12.5% chance to win the game, a 67.5% chance to break even or usually gain some value and a 20% chance to summon a beast that is likely not going to impact the game at all. Ram Wrangler is certainly an interesting card that will see play in beast themed hunter decks. Will it find a home in midrange decks? This will be updated once we know.
Enjoy experimenting in TGT!