This article will not talk about what website is the best to use for betting. Nor will it talk about the amount you should bet or whether betting is a good or a bad idea. It will just give you some simple tips to improve your chances of winning a bet. Remember that if you just win 51% of bets then over the long term then you will end up in profit (although you need smart bankroll management to make this work).
Identify why you are betting
Are you betting to earn money? In that case you will have to think differently (ie more research and less fan favouritism) than if you are betting for fun or to make games more exciting. If you are betting to earn money then bankroll management is a must (mentioned in the next section). If for fun the bankroll is not so important but it might be best to have a set limit of cash you are willing to bet.
Manage your bankroll
The first time I bet on DotaLounge then I won a 10 dollar item. I then proceeded to bet it and lost it straight away. In short, I didn’t manage my bankroll and instead put all my eggs in 1 basket. While 10 dollars is not a huge amount it is a good example of poor bankroll management on my part.
A lot of bettors recommend never betting more than 5% of your total bankroll on any given match. This helps prevent variance (a bad run of losses) from taking you out of the betting game completely. It also keeps you disciplined and less likely to tilt (get angry and have that anger affect your next bets) over losses.
Use Twitter and other social media
Follow all the teams/managers/players you can on Twitter. Before you place any bet then quickly scan through their accounts to see if there is any sign that you should not be betting on them. For example, if a player is sick and the team has to use a stand-in then you should probably not bet on them to win as teams with a stand-n are generally weaker.
Conduct your own “Meta-Analysis”
This is a fancy term for what is basically “look at other peoples predictions and go along with the majority”. A lot of people share their thoughts on who to bet on. You should study these predictions and over time you will come to recognise that certain bettors are usually very accurate in predicting results. Once you know a few different bettors then you can see if they all agree on certain matches. If lots of experienced bettors say that 1 team will win, it is a strong indicator that they will.
Use popular teams
You can often get very good odds by betting against popular teams. Teams with a large fan base such as NavVi often have streaks of bad performances and yet they have such a large fan base that the odds are still skewed into their favour. Try to find other teams and recognise when the odds are simply the fan base betting on them.
Don’t bet on every game
Although placing more bets can have more potential returns, it can also lead to more losses. Place a few bets, but make sure you research them first. If you place bets on all games then your research probably won’t be as thorough as proper research takes time.
What is proper research for a match?
- Look at possible team line-up changes.
- Check social media for anything that may change the outcome of the match/player illnesses.
- Check team websites for news.
- Check the latest results each team has had and any possible connections. For example if one team recently beat a high tier team, and the other one lost to that team then it could be a strong indicator of things to come.
- Check what happened the last time these teams met.
- If possible, watch both teams most recent matches (this takes a lot of time) and identify weak links or poor plays that the other team could be weak against. For example NaVi are notoriously bad against teams that rat (alliance).
- Other people’s predictions for any insights they may have.
Stay away from inconsistent teams
Some teams are simply inconsistent, especially when they are not playing for anything serious. LGH and HGT (to name 2 of many) are teams that are known for being able to perform extremely well and extremely poorly. A lot of money has been lost on what people thought were sure-fire bets.
Hope this helps you
Best of luck for your future bets. Remember that betting is gambling and even though you may not attach any value to dota 2 items, they are still worth money. Have fun!