The Grand Tournament Hearthstone expansion gave priest another legendary card in the form of Confessor Paletress. This card can has Inspire: Summon a random Legendary minion. As you can tell, this is quite RNG based and could win or even lose the game (it is quite similar to Murloc Knight, with good luck, it can win you the game instantly). Let’s look at what the statistics say about this card!
Hearthstone follows a rough rule of 1 mana = 1/1 health and attack. As a 7 mana 5/4, Paletress will have to summon a 2/3 card in order to even break even (and you do NOT want your lategame legendaries to only break even).
What are the chances of getting a specific legendary?
There are 79 legendary cards in Hearthstone (as of TGT) so the chances of getting a specific card are 1.1%. This means you should not rely on getting 1 specific card that you really need.
How often will you get a Taunt card?
You will get a taunt card (Chillmaw, Tyrion and Al’Akir) 3.3% of the time. Hogger summons a taunt card so technically 4.4%.
How often will you get a card with Charge?
You will get a legendary with Charge (King Krush, Grommash Hellscream, Leeroy Jenkins, Icehowl, Al’Akir, Skycap’n Kragg, Old Murk-Eye) 8% of the time.
How often will you summon a good card?
When minions are summoned their battlecries do not activate so we must just consider attack/health and strong card text. The chance of summoning a low value legendary is roughly 23% (Roughly is because some of the cards may be situationally very useful)
The chance of summoning a legendary with enough stats for Paletress to break even with her 9-mana cost is around 10% with some cards being situationally very good.
This means the chance of getting a strong, valuable card is around 67%. Confessor Paletress will pay for her cost (stats-wise) after 1 activation of her inspire 67% of the time.
Hope this has helped you!
This post will be fine-tuned after we have more time to experiment with Paletress.